Will Japanese agriculture revive? 日本の農業はよみがえるのか―注目される安倍政権の「攻めの農林水産業」―

1/15/2015

The Japanese economy is now entering a crucial phase. Abenomics, a package of bold fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and growth strategies which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government has pushed ahead in the past two years, seems to be helping the economy crawl out of a sense of frustration that has been hanging over the country since the Lehman Shock. Yet it is a mix of policy measures shorter and limited in effectiveness. Whether a long-term economic stability can be achieved to bring benefits to the nation totally depends on the growth strategies to spur private investment, the last of the “three arrows” that form Abenomics. The Japanese agriculture that stands at a crossroads may deserve particular attention in the growth strategies targeted at a broad spectrum of industries.


日本経済は今大きな局面を迎えている。安倍政権がアベノミクスと称し実行した積極的な金融・財政政策のおかげで、リーマン・ショック後日本経済を覆っていた閉塞感からは脱却できたのではないだろうか。だが、この政策は短期的かつ限定的なものであり、経済の長期的な安定を実現し、国民すべてが恩恵を受けられるようになるかどうかはアベノミクスの基本政策、いわゆる3本の矢の最後の1つ「民間投資を喚起する成長戦略」の成否にかかっている。多分野にわたる成長戦略の中で、とくに注目されるのが岐路に立つ日本の農業だ.



Japanese agriculture losing power

衰退たどる日本農業

 

Japan’s agriculture has been on the decline for years due to a falling number of farming population, coupled with the aging of people engaged in the industry. The annual gross agricultural output has been gradually diminishing since hitting its peak at \11 trillion in 1985. The latest statistical data made available by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries (MAFF) put the 2012 output at \8 trillion, a contraction of some 30% in the past 27 years. Adding to the industry’s plight have been the falling domestic demand and increasing imports of cheaper crops. The agricultural income dropped as much as 50% compared with 20 years ago.


農業人口の減少、農業従事者の高齢化など多くの問題を抱え、日本の農業は衰退の道をたどっている。農業総産出額でみると、ピークの1985年の約11兆円から次第に減少。農林水産省がこのほど発表した統計によると、2012年の農業総産出額は約8兆円と、27年間で3割減と大きく落ち込んでいる。これに追い打ちをかけているのが、国内需要の減少と安価な輸入作物の増加であり、これを反映して農業所得は20年前に比べ半減している。

 

Alerted by this critical situation, the Abe administration came out with an ambitious growth strategy, dubbed “aggressive agriculture, forestry and fisheries,” aimed to double the farming income in the next decade through improvement of productivity.  The strategy specifically aims to: (1) improve productivity through integration and consolidation of farmlands, (2) double exports of agriculture, forestry and fisheries products, and (3) expand the market of the so-called “sixth industry” from \1 trillion now to \10 trillion in the next ten years. For reference, the “sixth industry” is a term coined by agricultural economist Naraomi Imamura, a professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, by multiplying the primary, secondary and tertiary industries. It is an initiative to have producers of farm and dairy products directly involved in the secondary (food processing) and tertiary (distribution and marketing) industries so that they can get part of the added values earned by those who are engaged in the two industries.


事態を重くみた安倍政権は「攻めの農林水産業」というキャッチフレーズのもと、農業の生産性向上と、今後10年間で農村の所得を倍増するという大胆な成長戦略を宣言。農地の集積・集約化による生産性の向上農林水産物の輸出を2倍に拡大そして現在1兆円規模の6次産業市場を10兆円にまで拡大、の3つの政策を掲げた。なお、6次産業とは、業経済学者の今村奈良臣(東京大学名誉教授)が1次、2次、3次産業を掛け合わせて提唱した造語。農業者が農畜産物の生産(1次)だけでなく、食品加工(2次)、流通・販売等(3次)にも直接関わることで、第2次・3次産業事業者が得る付加価値を得られるようにしようとする取組をいう。


“Farmland Consolidation Banks”

目玉政策の「農地集積バンク」

 

Playing the core role in the growth strategy for agriculture will be what it calls “Farmland Consolidation Banks.” These are the “Public Intermediate Organizations for Farmland Consolidation” set up so far in 43 of the country’s 47 prefectures. The banks will acquire idled and abandoned farmlands and lease them to big regional farmers. They may hold the key to the success of the strategy as they are aimed to help the agriculture industry revive by eliminating its long-standing inefficiency.


安倍政権が農業成長戦略の目玉政策として打ち出したのが「農地集積バンク」の創設だ。これは既に43県で設置済みの「農地中間管理機構」が離農農家の農地や耕作放棄地などの利用権を取得し、地域の中核となる農業経営者にまとまった形で貸し出す仕組み。日本農業が抱える非効率性を解消し、農業を再興させるカギとなりそうだ。

 

Improved productivity can cut the production cost for both crops and processed goods based on them. The reduced cost can make Japanese farm products more competitive in the global markets. That will help expand their exports and boost competition among farmers at home. However, the government, farmers and people in general will need to cooperate with each other in achieving those aims.


生産効率化は農作物とそれらを使った加工品の双方の生産コストを下げる。価格競争で劣勢に立たされている日本の農作物も、コスト低下によって対外競争力を上げるだろう。おのずと農産物輸出は拡大しさらに、農業の国内競争が促されるはずだ。しかし、これらの目標を達成するには政府と農業者、一般国民の協力と努力が必要とされるだろう。

 

For example, greater mutual efforts will be needed in improving the rice productivity. Rice is one of the staple crops in Japan. Any productivity improvement will be hardly possible without lifting the production adjustment policy which has been in place since 1970. Farmland consolidation banks, mentioned above, will temporally borrow fallow and deserted farmlands from their owners to lease them to applicants. The cost needed to take care of those farmlands and make them ready for leasing is estimated at as much as \10 million per hectare. It will indirectly add to the burden shouldered by taxpayers. Moreover, this project can involve risks because no applicants may come forward if lands are prepared.


例えば、コメの生産性向上である。コメは日本農業の代表的作物だが、1970年から続く減反政策の撤廃なくしてこれを達成することはできない。前述の農地集積バンクについても、現在休耕地もしくは耕作放棄地と見なされている土地を所有者から一時的に借り受け、政府が整備し、後に希望者に貸し出す制度だが、1ヘクタール当たりの整備費は1000万円にも及ぶ。これは、間接的に国民の負担が増えることを意味する。また、農地を整備しても希望者が現れないなどのリスクもこの事業にある。

 

Long rugged road ahead

続く長く険しい道

 

As part of its “sixth industry” initiative, the Abe government is planning to ease the existing regulations to make it easier for private businesses such food and distribution firms to branch out into the agriculture industry. However, the move is strongly opposed by the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations (Zen-Noh). The Japanese agriculture has long been run in a conservative way, protected by complicated regulations. A number of hurdles need to be cleared before revolutionary changes can be brought into it. Will the incoming administration be able to carry out agricultural reforms to stem the industry’s long-continued decline? A long bumpy road is in store for it.


政府は6次産業化農業振興の一環として、食品や流通企業など民間企業の農業参入を容易にするための規制緩和を実行しようとしている。しかし、この規制緩和の動きは全国農業協同組合連合会(全農)から反発を受けている。保守的で、複雑な制度のもと運営される日本農業において、革新的な政策を実行するには多くの障害が待ち受けている。果たして、次期政権は日本農業の構造改革を実行し、長く続く衰退に歯止めをかけることができるのだろうか。長く険しい道はまだまだ続きそうだ。

 

(Written by: Hideki Kato)